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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 31

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Gabriel (20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP