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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 74

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to LA 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.18 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP