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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to CHI 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-57-N.Patrick.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model