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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model