Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 74

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-J.Natson to LA 28 for no gain (84-C.Patterson). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Patterson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 28. Penalty on CHI-35-R.Nall, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model