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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.30 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP