Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(6:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 17, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model