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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.84 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model