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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.30 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model