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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 18 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 5-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model