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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 18

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 16 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe). PENALTY on SEA-23-N.Thorpe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP