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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model