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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 9 at the 52
Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10
What Actually Happened
(7:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 22 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.98 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.03 EP
- 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK
-1.62 EP
- 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT
-0.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
