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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 19-D.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model