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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SF 39 for 20 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model