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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.26 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP