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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to SEA 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP