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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to SF 8, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 8 for no gain (28-U.Amadi).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model