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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to SEA 25, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert. PENALTY on SF-31-R.Mostert, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP