4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 53

New York Jets 34 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NYG 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-G.Tate to NYG 16 for 8 yards (41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.68 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -1.00 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model