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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 97

New York Giants 27 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to NYJ 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-B.Berrios to 50 for 12 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 97, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model