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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 64

New York Jets 34 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.50 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model