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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Jets 21 – New York Giants 19

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NYG 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model