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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 36

New York Jets 14 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 9-S.Ficken 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model