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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 81

New York Jets 14 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NYG 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model