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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 39

New York Giants 7 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model