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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 79

New York Jets 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NYG 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.32 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model