Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 47 for 14 yards (58-K.Wilber). Penalty on LAC-89-J.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on LAC-23-R.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model