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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 1-T.Long punts 54 yards to LV 10, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-T.Davis to LV 20 for 10 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model