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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 26

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at LV 35. 42-K.Joseph to LV 35 for no gain (13-K.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -1.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP