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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model