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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP