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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model