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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 40
Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to LAC 37 for 3 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
The Three Options
GO
+1.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.45 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK
-0.23 EP
- 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
