4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to KC 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.80 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model