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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP