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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model