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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(14:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to KC 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model