Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to KC 4, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.31 EP
53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -2.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model