Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

(12:05) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 26 yards to TEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-R.Fenton.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP

KICK -2.09 EP

20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
80% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model