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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 26, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.02 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model