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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 25

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Amendola (20-P.Amukamara). Penalty on DET-2-J.Driskel, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +1.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.85 EP