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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 46

Chicago Bears 20 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.58 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP