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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 46

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep middle to 19-K.Golladay.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model