Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 89

Detroit Lions 6 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(9:49) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 49 for 18 yards (82-L.Thomas). PENALTY on CHI-35-R.Nall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.97 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model