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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 52

Chicago Bears 20 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model