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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 61

Detroit Lions 6 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to CHI 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-32-T.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP