Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 92

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(7:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CHI 49, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.29 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 92, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model