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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 52

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 11 for 1 yard (30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model