Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 92

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 42, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Agnew to CHI 44 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson; 82-B.Braunecker).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.91 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 92, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model